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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/first-principle-long-term-ism/">第一性原理和长期主义</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2021-03-22 </span>
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          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%A0%E9%A2%98/"> 无题 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 2122 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 5 分钟 </span>
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      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">导言</p>
<p>《价值》敷衍剖陈了整整3卷10章，寻根究底就说了一个中心两个基本点——<strong>价值投资为中心，坚持长期主义和第一性原理</strong>——它是个普适性的抽象原则，不止适用于投资、实业，也能指导组织和个人的发展。然而这几个概念都包含了大量似是而非的涵义，需要慎重地使用。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/find-a-job-2020-3/">中年再就业，挨捶一百遍（下）</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-08-07 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%A0%E9%A2%98/"> 无题 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 5595 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 12 分钟 </span>
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      <p><a href="/post/find-a-job-2020-2/">接上篇</a></p>
<h2 id="4-策略形变">4 策略形变</h2>
<p>五月份，我彻底歇下来了。每天的常态就是窝在家，重复做几件事：</p>
<ul>
<li>刷职位，丢简历</li>
<li>等电话，聊电话</li>
<li>配合各家要求做各种测评/笔试</li>
<li>盯娃的功课</li>
<li>偶尔出门挨顿面捶</li>
</ul>
<p>说起来每周有七天，但周末基本没什么电话。一般周三开始才有猎头电话（据说周一开会，周二跟进上周事务，所以周三才开始新BD），等HR来沟通，基本得周四周五；如果争取到了面试，往往安排要到下周二三，如是往复……每个线程都有六到八个前后依赖的串行节点，推进速度以周计。黄了两个线程以后，我寻思继续这么下去可不行，offer转化率这么低，猴年马月才能再就业。我得优化一下策略。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/tiktok-ban-corruption-usa/">TikTok禁令是美帝道德堕落的显征</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-08-04 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 672 字 </span>
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    <div class="post-summary">
      TikTok早些时候就已经被CFIUS投了不信任票，和微软接洽剥离出售应该也进行了一段时间。闯王这个时候跳出来就是为了政治变现，收割CFIU
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/find-a-job-2020-2/">中年再就业，挨捶一百遍（中）</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-07-31 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%A0%E9%A2%98/"> 无题 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 7228 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 15 分钟 </span>
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    <div class="post-summary">
      <p><a href="/post/find-a-job-2020-1/">接上篇</a></p>
<h2 id="2-复盘赛道">2 复盘：赛道</h2>
<h3 id="企业健康管理">企业健康管理</h3>
<p>部门从成立开始，就致力于把前面讲的这套东西搬到中国。虽然2008金融危机余波未平，但中国受灾有限，外企还挺风光，愿意照搬美国那套烧钱的玩法。以疾病管理为精髓的管理式医疗框架在国内仍被奉若神明，很高大上。借这个东风，起步做得还挺顺。</p>
<p>但「我天朝自有国情在此」，即使这套框架真的有效，在中国也很难全面铺开。</p>
<ol>
<li>中国企业（包括在华运营的外企）的盈利能力整体不如欧美，多数没有额外开展企业健康管理项目的预算。有这笔预算的多是国企央企事业单位，习惯自己来做。可想而知，剩下的市场并不大。</li>
<li>企业健康管理项目要获得良好效果，最好在员工年龄较大、医疗福利覆盖较差的组织中开展（底子差，进步才大）。而中国的企业普遍年轻，平均30郎当岁，做不出显著效果。</li>
<li>项目一般3到5年才会产生若有若无的一点效果。中国企业员工平均流动率近20% <sup id="fnref:1"><a href="#fn:1" class="footnote-ref" role="doc-noteref">1</a></sup>，世界领先。这个背景下，健康效益很大一部分都被抵消了。</li>
<li>开展企业健康项目，既不能抵税，也不能抵社保，是一笔纯成本。用真金白银换假想的收益，全天下的财务都难以信服。</li>
</ol>
<p>但正像前面所说，雇主总归会有一笔维稳性质的预算。在中国，我们发现这笔钱叫「年度体检预算」。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/find-a-job-2020-1/">中年再就业，挨捶一百遍（上）</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-07-25 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%A0%E9%A2%98/"> 无题 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 6424 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 13 分钟 </span>
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      <div class="admonition abstract"><p class="admonition-title">摘要</p>
<p>过去半年，人类猛地穿进历史的浓雾，解锁出大片前无古人的混沌局面，并如脱缰野马一般加速驶向晦暗不明的未来。己亥继以庚子，瘴疠踵于水火；灾异丛生，邪妄群起，阴翳四覆，天下忧心。</p>
<p>真正的惊涛骇浪或许尚未到来，这只是先导的暗流——饶是如此，已足以让亿万普通人没顶。在连续半年的多重冲击下，家颓业屺、荡产荷债的人数不胜数。更不幸的，已成荒郊新冢。而这样的形势，还将继续蔓延。</p>
<p>我的运气比他们好些——跟地球上其他十多亿人一样，只是丢了工作。但回顾这三个月的求职之路，仍觉荆棘密布，感喟良深。仿佛回到了学生时代，日复一日改简历、找推荐、看资料、跑面试，周而复始地经历等待、准备、挨捶、幻灭。从起先踌躇满志，到后来迷茫失落，偶尔怆懑难解，最终还是与无力感和解，归于意阑气敛。</p>
<p>饱吃社会一顿揍，笑叹金身四面膘。认怂躺平，早学早好。</p>
<p>人到中年，年轻时那些缤纷的可能性、成长性之类的「未来向」属性都已渐渐破灭。能力上限越来越难突破，资源和实绩才最紧要。面前只剩冷冰冰的几条窄仄小路——努力奋挣仍是必须的，否则连小路都没得走；但多数人注定也就只能走到上一辈人停下的位置。固然也有很多例外，但概率越来越低。所谓「四十不惑」，大抵如此：扑腾至此，命运格局已大抵明晰，乱花过目，枯心无惑，需要的是务实、专注、坚持。</p>
<p>泰不足喜，否不足忧。用这个机会学习接纳、审视自己，尝试调整、顺应，方能对更凶险的未来有所准备。回头再看，真相并不在「自身的不懈努力」，而是各种机缘浮沉；坚持住，或许会被下一个浪头拍去某处岸边。这个过程里有大局小势起伏嬗变，有亲友、贵人助力，有巧合，有意外。唯独个人努力，实际作用甚微。然而也只有这根稻草，是我们每个人能真实掌控的。</p>
<div class="admonition quote"><p class="admonition-title">滞旅中流</p>
  <p>恃艺轻狂胆未老，填艄补舷赴潮头。<br>
力洄高峡千年浪，斜舣下汭二里洲。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/fall-of-public-health/">公卫时评几则</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-05-25 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
          </div>
        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1863 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 4 分钟 </span>
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      <h2 id="1">1</h2>
<h3 id="马后炮">马后炮</h3>
<p>现在很多声音都在疾呼加强公共卫生建设，马后炮震天响。悲观地说，大疫情的发生是宿命，不是新冠，也会是新新冠。</p>
<p>之前长三角成功封堵禽流感，换来了什么？高层和大众对此伟功毫无认知，疾控系统待遇持续下降，人员持续流失。非得出一次大灾，才会重新念起好。万一这次中疾控不犯浑，又给堵住了呢？大家又会继续遗忘下去，直到有经验的都退休了，剩下的菜鸟再也无力处置下一次大疫。这不是中国一家的问题，美国财政减负，也是连年带头砍CDC的预算。名言说得好，「走遍天下，公共卫生都没什么地位」。这个行当，瘟神就是财神。防住了，反而兔死狗烹；防不住，大佬会吃瓜落，但行业能得利。横竖都没好事。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/covid-go-where/">COVID-19疫情将向何处去</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-02-19 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1339 字 </span>
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      <h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>湖北以外新增确诊数持续下降，与此同时经济日益承压，低流行地区复工复产迫在眉睫。问题来了，究竟怎样才算「抗疫成功」，解除警报？很多人想象中的胜利日应该像2004年4月北京解除SARS警报一样，欢声雷动。那是彻底的胜利，此后SARS除了实验室泄漏一次以外，彻底销声匿迹。这也就是张文宏说的疫情的第二种转归（第一种转归就是失控，现在已经可以排除）。</p>
<p>然而，种种迹象暗示，最有可能的转归是第三种，即COVID-19不会销声匿迹，而是像季节性流感一样与人类长期共存。</p>
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    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/sino-japan-plastic-friendship/">疫情下的中日塑料情</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-02-16 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%B6%E8%AF%84/"> 时评 </a>
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        <span class="more-meta"> 约 1167 字 </span>
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      <figure class="center"><img src="https://5b0988e595225.cdn.sohucs.com/images/20200203/ce8f375f5999491b96f45a382d56771d.jpeg"
         alt="山川异域，风月同天"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 「山川异域，风月同天」</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<h2 id="1">1</h2>
<p>找不出哪个国家像日本一样，能周期性地激起中国民意如此不合理的大幅摇摆。这次新冠疫情，日本在「赈灾物资斗诗法会」中靠「山川异域，风月同天」和「岂曰无衣，与子同袍」一举胜出，朝野和民间又广泛踊跃援助，引得国内观感大好，一时感恩雷动。——还记得吗？仅仅几个月之前，两国还彼此嫌弃无比。日本有80%的人讨厌中国，在西方国家排名第一。中国厌日的比例未必那么高，但论讨厌对象，日本不会掉出前三，电视台排满了抗日神剧。怎么一场大疫，冤家的感情就能拉近这么多？</p>
<p>这恰好说明，两国彼此的厌恶情绪，是被不合理放大了的、偏离实际的。所以只要稍微有点扰动，就会急剧向均数回归。</p>
    </div>
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      <a href="/post/sino-japan-plastic-friendship/" class="read-more-link">阅读更多</a>
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</article>

    <article class="post">
  <header class="post-header">
    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/london-trip-2020-7/">2020年初伦敦行(7)：大英博物馆(下)、博罗市场</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-02-15 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%85%E6%B8%B8/"> 旅游 </a>
          </div>
        <span class="more-meta"> 约 2971 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 6 分钟 </span>
    </div>
  </header>
  
  <div class="post-content">
    <div class="post-summary">
      <h2 id="1-31-大英博物馆下">1-31 大英博物馆(下)</h2>
<h3 id="西亚">​西亚</h3>
<p>​大英博物馆的西亚馆甚至比埃及馆还要大，而西亚馆最显著的是亚述(Assyria)文物。从Nemrud宫门卸下来的高大威武的五足狮身鹰翼护法神Lamassu花岗石像，被放在展厅入口。展厅里都是从尼尼微亚述遗址里搬来的珍品。</p>
<p>文物被英国掠夺，既是悲哀也是幸运。ISIS占领摩苏尔（尼尼微所在地）后，野蛮破坏亚述文物。现在的尼尼微遗址，已经找不到像大英博物里那么完好的石雕文物了。​</p>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2020/0214/001ZzLsRzy7AN5BIIwC26.jpeg" width="100%"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 亚述Lamassu石像</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>可以看到细节生动的卷髯亚述武士浮雕。</p>
    </div>
    <div class="read-more">
      <a href="/post/london-trip-2020-7/" class="read-more-link">阅读更多</a>
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  </div>
</article>

    <article class="post">
  <header class="post-header">
    <h1 class="post-title"><a class="post-link" href="/post/london-trip-2020-6/">2020年初伦敦行(6)：大英博物馆(上)</a></h1>
    <div class="post-meta">
      <span class="post-time"> 2020-02-14 </span>
      <div class="post-category">
          <a href="/categories/%E6%97%85%E6%B8%B8/"> 旅游 </a>
          </div>
        <span class="more-meta"> 约 2420 字 </span>
        <span class="more-meta"> 预计阅读 5 分钟 </span>
    </div>
  </header>
  
  <div class="post-content">
    <div class="post-summary">
      <h2 id="1-31-大英博物馆上">1-31 大英博物馆(上)</h2>
<p>今天，拜访伦敦行之不可不去的大英博物馆。​</p>
<figure class="center"><img src="https://gh-1251443721.cos.ap-chengdu.myqcloud.com/2020/0214/001ZzLsRzy7AMU6RYEh69.jpeg" width="100%"/><figcaption>
            <h4>图 | 伦敦·罗素广场</h4>
        </figcaption>
</figure>
<p>此处有个极为重要的坑。我们坐地铁到Holborn（记住这个名字！）站，很多人挤在狭窄的过道里等电梯，旁边是空空如也的旋转步梯。以我这些天坐地铁的经验，步梯也就几十级台阶而已，干脆直接走楼梯吧。走上几步，看到一个标牌，「There are 500 steps to the ground floor」。500级这么多？来都来了，接着走吧。</p>
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      <a href="/post/london-trip-2020-6/" class="read-more-link">阅读更多</a>
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